Sunday, May 29, 2005
NASA On Mars: We'll Get There, When We Get There.
When Burt Rutan gave his press conference back when he was winning the X-Prize he promised that the private space program would pass NASA on its way to the planets. Well, NASA has released its preliminary roadmaps for exploring the solar system. (Click here) Burt's prediction has a chance of coming true. To understand why, let's look at the roadmap to Mars. (Click here.)
NASA plans to explore Mars in 4 phases. The value of the President's Space Vision Thing is evident in the plan. The ultimate goal of the roadmap is to send humans to Mars. The robotic missions and other tasks are all directed to fulfilling that goal. That's the theme, anyway. The reality is a whole 'nother thing. Here's a key quote from the executive summary:
In other words NASA is saying is they've already got this really great robot exploration program that they fully intend to continue for as long as they can. They'll share the data they were going to obtain anyway with the human exploration program for use sometime in the distant future after every possibility permutation, risk, and cost has been examined and debated.
How are they going to help the manned program?
In other words, NASA will tweak their planned robotic program here and there in deference to the Space Vision Thing. In the meantime, NASA will continue to send robots to Mars and do some Lunar exploration.
When does NASA propose to send humans to Mars?
The "few decades" of the executive summary translates in Phase IV to this in 2035:
That's right: 2035!
So there it is. NASA is in no hurry to put human footprints in the red sands of Mars. They don't even plan to initiate human missions to Mars until 2035. Initiating missions is not the same as sending a mission on that date. It means, the manned Mars program begins in 2035. That's 3 decades from now, 1 score and 10, the big Three Oh, 30 years.
There's got to be a faster way. Anyone? Anyone?
-tdr
NASA plans to explore Mars in 4 phases. The value of the President's Space Vision Thing is evident in the plan. The ultimate goal of the roadmap is to send humans to Mars. The robotic missions and other tasks are all directed to fulfilling that goal. That's the theme, anyway. The reality is a whole 'nother thing. Here's a key quote from the executive summary:
The development of the Vision for Space Exploration has added a new dimension to a
vibrant and highly successful Mars exploration program. The existing scientific
objectives of Mars exploration can be seen in light of a long-range future that will
ultimately lead to human exploration of the planet, fulfilling a centuries-old dream of humankind. The goals of the present robotic Mars exploration program are well aligned with the needs of future human exploration and will enable the nation to make well-informed decisions regarding human mission capabilities, costs, risks, and priorities.
In other words NASA is saying is they've already got this really great robot exploration program that they fully intend to continue for as long as they can. They'll share the data they were going to obtain anyway with the human exploration program for use sometime in the distant future after every possibility permutation, risk, and cost has been examined and debated.
How are they going to help the manned program?
New areas of emphasis should be added to the program, including:
• Precursor measurements to characterize and assess Mars’ environment to ensure
• Technologies responsive to the more demanding needs of human travel
• Engineering infrastructure required for human safety and mission success
Human exploration of the Moon can provide important opportunities to verify and
validate systems and processes for human Mars exploration.
In other words, NASA will tweak their planned robotic program here and there in deference to the Space Vision Thing. In the meantime, NASA will continue to send robots to Mars and do some Lunar exploration.
When does NASA propose to send humans to Mars?
Within a few decades, we will be prepared to undertake an integrated robotic and human exploration program for detailed study of the planet Mars, leading to a new understanding of the evolution of the solar system and the development and evolution of life.
The "few decades" of the executive summary translates in Phase IV to this in 2035:
• Initiate human missions to Mars
• Explore Mars with a unified robotic and human system
That's right: 2035!
So there it is. NASA is in no hurry to put human footprints in the red sands of Mars. They don't even plan to initiate human missions to Mars until 2035. Initiating missions is not the same as sending a mission on that date. It means, the manned Mars program begins in 2035. That's 3 decades from now, 1 score and 10, the big Three Oh, 30 years.
There's got to be a faster way. Anyone? Anyone?
-tdr
The Sound Of Voyager I Saying Goodbye To The Heliosphere
Last December Voyager I began its exit from The Heliosphere. Its instruments recorded its encounter with the termination shock and sent them to Earth. You can hear what it sounded like, along with other cool sounds of space, by clicking here.
-tdr
-tdr
Labels: Aesthetics
The Few, The Busy, The Settlers.
A recent story on livescience.com (click here) claims that DNA studies have shown the Americas were settled over 10,000 years ago by only 70 people. Estimates of pre-Columbian populations in the Americas vary widely from a low of 500,000 to a high of 54 million (click here) and are almost impossible to verify.
Whatever the number may have been what can't be disputed is that the Americas were home to a wide range of human societies and civilizations that stretched from the farthest north to the farthest south when Columbus first landed here. And if the DNA study is correct, it all started with just 70 people.
The lesson for space colonization is the power of reproduction over time means it won't take many people to successfully settle another planet so long as they are able to keep busy doing what comes naturally.
-tdr
Whatever the number may have been what can't be disputed is that the Americas were home to a wide range of human societies and civilizations that stretched from the farthest north to the farthest south when Columbus first landed here. And if the DNA study is correct, it all started with just 70 people.
The lesson for space colonization is the power of reproduction over time means it won't take many people to successfully settle another planet so long as they are able to keep busy doing what comes naturally.
-tdr
Tuesday, May 24, 2005
Looking For Distant Earths In All The Right Places.
In the past 10 years we have gone from not knowing if any other sun in our galaxy had planets to confirming the existence of 144 planets outside our solar system. In about two years, NASA will launch the Kepler telescope on a four-year mission to look for Earth-like planets around 170,000 stars. (Click here for Kepler website.) It won't be an easy task, but showing her pride, Kepler's Deputy Project Engineer Nagin Cox, of JPL, told an audience in San Diego that "JPL does hard stuff."
Cox was in San Diego to speak at the Aerospace Museum as part of its mysteries of aviation series. (Click here for museum website.) The mystery Cox talked about was "are there other Earths in our galaxy?"
Cox is just coming off a stint as part of the Mars Rover team. In that job she helped to answer the question whether liquid water ever flowed on the surface of Mars. The Rovers answered that question with a resounding "yes!" Now Cox is moving on to an even greater mystery.
The search for extra-solar planets is just beginning. The first such planet was discovered revolving around a neutron star in 1992. To date, the search for planets outside our solar system has relied on a technique called "radial velocity." That technique measures the wobble of a star caused by the presence of a planet.
Radial velocity is good for detecting large gas giants. It's not so good at detecting smaller rocky planets like Earth, Mars and Venus. Kepler will use a new technique to search for those planets, called the "transit method." It will look at stars to detect the slight dimming to the face of the star caused when a planet passes in front of it. In essence, Kepler will be looking for spots on distant stars to detect small planets.
This is no easy task. For example, Earth casts a shadow on the sun that makes a circle covering only 0.01 percent of the sun's surface. When you combine this small shadow with the fact that other stars have sunspots, just like our sun does, it's easy to recognize the difficulty of Kepler's mission.
Kepler will have a 100 megapixel camera for its mission. It will have to stare at its targets continuously to determine what is a sunspot and what might be a planet. To provide the best vantage with the least interference from the Earth for viewing the distant stars, Kepler will be launched into an orbit that trails the Earth on its voyage around the sun.
When Kepler detects a likely candidate its data will be shared with other astronomers to do the follow up work to confirm whether a planet exists. Kepler's job is a census mission. It will try to detect a statistically significant number of objects to help determine the frequency of Earth like planets around other stars. Kepler's instruments will be precise enough to detect whether the planet is within the so-called Goldilocks Zone of the other star where liquid water could exist -- about 1 A.U., or the distance of Earth's orbit, for a sun like ours.
Cox is optimistic about her new mission. Today, we know that 144 planets circle around other stars in our galaxy, a fact that was mere speculation before 1992. She told her San Diego audience that 6 years from now we will know whether there are other Earths in our galaxy.
We won't know whether these other Earths can sustain life. All we will know is whether there are planets like Earth orbiting other stars in the zone where liquid water could exist. In searching for life here in the Heliosphere, we have adopted the strategy of following the water. Kepler is taking that strategy beyond the solar system to look for places where water could exist and life could find a home.
Are we alone in the universe? Stay tuned.
-tdr
Cox was in San Diego to speak at the Aerospace Museum as part of its mysteries of aviation series. (Click here for museum website.) The mystery Cox talked about was "are there other Earths in our galaxy?"
Cox is just coming off a stint as part of the Mars Rover team. In that job she helped to answer the question whether liquid water ever flowed on the surface of Mars. The Rovers answered that question with a resounding "yes!" Now Cox is moving on to an even greater mystery.
The search for extra-solar planets is just beginning. The first such planet was discovered revolving around a neutron star in 1992. To date, the search for planets outside our solar system has relied on a technique called "radial velocity." That technique measures the wobble of a star caused by the presence of a planet.
Radial velocity is good for detecting large gas giants. It's not so good at detecting smaller rocky planets like Earth, Mars and Venus. Kepler will use a new technique to search for those planets, called the "transit method." It will look at stars to detect the slight dimming to the face of the star caused when a planet passes in front of it. In essence, Kepler will be looking for spots on distant stars to detect small planets.
This is no easy task. For example, Earth casts a shadow on the sun that makes a circle covering only 0.01 percent of the sun's surface. When you combine this small shadow with the fact that other stars have sunspots, just like our sun does, it's easy to recognize the difficulty of Kepler's mission.
Kepler will have a 100 megapixel camera for its mission. It will have to stare at its targets continuously to determine what is a sunspot and what might be a planet. To provide the best vantage with the least interference from the Earth for viewing the distant stars, Kepler will be launched into an orbit that trails the Earth on its voyage around the sun.
When Kepler detects a likely candidate its data will be shared with other astronomers to do the follow up work to confirm whether a planet exists. Kepler's job is a census mission. It will try to detect a statistically significant number of objects to help determine the frequency of Earth like planets around other stars. Kepler's instruments will be precise enough to detect whether the planet is within the so-called Goldilocks Zone of the other star where liquid water could exist -- about 1 A.U., or the distance of Earth's orbit, for a sun like ours.
Cox is optimistic about her new mission. Today, we know that 144 planets circle around other stars in our galaxy, a fact that was mere speculation before 1992. She told her San Diego audience that 6 years from now we will know whether there are other Earths in our galaxy.
We won't know whether these other Earths can sustain life. All we will know is whether there are planets like Earth orbiting other stars in the zone where liquid water could exist. In searching for life here in the Heliosphere, we have adopted the strategy of following the water. Kepler is taking that strategy beyond the solar system to look for places where water could exist and life could find a home.
Are we alone in the universe? Stay tuned.
-tdr
Sunday, May 22, 2005
Photos Of JPL Open House: Nukes Are Good.
A man and his nuke. This JPL employee is leaning on a Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator. An RTG, as it's called, generates electricity from the heat created by the decay of its plutonium fuel. (Click here for facts about RTGs in space.) RTGs have been used safely and successfully in many robotic missions as well as in Apollo missions RTGs are not able to generate large amounts of electricity so NASA is developing a nuclear reactor for future space missions. Nuclear power is necessary if we are to make any progress in exploring the solar system. Missions to the outer reaches of the solar system cannot rely on solar power because the sun's light is too feeble in deep space. Human missions to the moon and beyond will also depend on nuclear power. Although current plans for a base on the moon assume solar power, we cannot realistically rely on solar power on the moon because of that pesky 14 day-long night. A nuclear power generator would provide a more stable power source during the long and cold lunar night. Human missions to Mars and beyond could be shortened tremendously with the use of nuclear propulsion, in place of the chemical rockets we rely on today. The other photos in today's set show examples of NASA's successful use of nuclear power in space and some of their plans for future uses.
Labels: JPL Open House 2005
This is a desk-top model of perhaps the most successful RTG powered spaceships to date, Voyagers 1 and 2. These ships were launched in 1977 and are still operating, thanks to their nuclear power plants. In their 28 years of flight the ships passed Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. The ships are presently approaching the outer limit of the Heliosphere. They are likely to become the first ships to enter interstellar space in the next 10-20 years. (Click here for details of their mission.) Their RTGs can power them until 2020 to 2025. Budgets might end their mission before then, however. Although they only require about $4 million per year to operate, the Voyagers' continued funding is in doubt.
Labels: JPL Open House 2005
Another ship that used RTGs for power was the Galileo. (I have no idea why the full-size model on display at JPL was clad in black leather. It does look cool, though.) Galileo was was sent to explore Jupiter and its moons in 1989. It arrived at Jupiter in 1995. For the next 8 years it explored the gas planet and its moons. One of its discoveries was evidence of an ocean under the ice on Europa. Galileo's mission came to an end in 2003, when it was directed to fly into Jupiter, where it was crushed by the atmosphere. (Click here for more details of the mission.)
Labels: JPL Open House 2005
Full-size model of the Mars Science Laboratory rover scheduled for launch in 2009. This rover is often described as SUV-size. In reality, it is appears to be about the size of a car. The Mars Science Laboratory's mission will be to test the rocks and ground of Mars for signs of life. Its mission is designed to last for 2 years. The rover's size, instrumentation, and its mission duration require a power source more powerful than solar panels. The rover is expected to be powered by an RTG. When asked about the power source, a JPL employee explaining the Mars Science Laboratory at the open house was reluctant to discuss it. He first said on microphone to the crowd that solar power could be used, but when challenged about that he turned off the microphone and spoke privately, one to one, about the possibility of using nuclear power. (Click here for more details on the mission.)
Labels: JPL Open House 2005
Scale model of the Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter, now scheduled for launch in 2017. JIMO, as it's called, is about 200 feet long. The panels in the center of the ship are not for solar power, they are heat radiators for the nuclear power plant located at the nose of the ship. The thrusters and science assembly are at the stern. JIMO's uranium-fueled nuclear power plant will create electricity through a nuclear reaction, much like conventional reactors on Earth. It will provide all power for the ship, including the electric-ion propulsion system. This differs from nuclear powered robotic missions to date, which have used RTGs for ship's power and standard chemical rockets for propulsion. The reactor is being developed by NASA in a program called Project Prometheus. (Click here for more details.)
Labels: JPL Open House 2005
Rear view of JIMO showing close up of the thrusters and the science module. (Photo Credit, Gerry Williams, http://filmist.com.)
Labels: JPL Open House 2005
Full size model of the Project Prometheus reactor. (Photo Credit, Gerry Williams.)
Labels: JPL Open House 2005
Tuesday, May 17, 2005
Photos Of JPL Open House: Bots, Bots And More Bots.
This cool looking little rock climber is the Steep Terrain Access Robot or STAR. It's a concept robot for use in future missions on rough and steep terrain where less agile humans and robots cannot explore. Today's photo set is of robots of the future, robots about to be sent to Mars, and robots in use today.
Labels: JPL Open House 2005
The little Sample Return Rover is pictured here. The rover is used to test an advanced control system. Currently, it can take up to 3 days and multiple commands for a robotic rover to approach and examine a rock. The SRR's system requires only one command. The rover is also able to move its legs and wheels to crouch down and stand up. This changes the rover's center of mass and will help it travel over rough terrain.
Labels: JPL Open House 2005
This is a 1/2 size model of the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, scheduled for launch this year. The orbiter will arrive at Mars in March of 2006 and for the next 8 months it will fly in and out of the upper reaches of the red planet's atmosphere 580 times to slow itself down to a circular orbit. This is a proven method for slowing down craft at Mars. The carbon dioxide atmosphere of Mars is 100 times thinner than Earth's nitrogen/oxygen air but the orbiter still must enter the atmosphere at a precise angle or risk burning up or flying past the planet.
Labels: JPL Open House 2005
This is a full scale mockup of the camera which will be on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. The camera will be able to resolve objects the size of a dinner table, a vast improvement over current cameras which can resolve school-bus size objects.
Labels: JPL Open House 2005
This is a full-size model of the Phoenix lander which will be sent to Mars to look for evidence of life. Scheduled to launch in 2007, it is the first of the so-called Mars Scout missions. Phoenix will land in the north polar region in May 2008 and operate until the winter, when the extreme cold will force its shutdown. The lander will have a robotic arm for digging up ground samples to a depth of 2 feet or so, below where the UV has sterilized the ground. The lander's instruments onboard will analyze the ground samples for evidence of organic molecules.
Labels: JPL Open House 2005
This is a 1/4 scale model of the Mars Global Surveyor. In orbit around Mars since 1997, the craft has completed 25,000 science orbits and taken over 187,000 images with its Mars Orbiter Camera, which is controlled right here in San Diego by Malin Space Science Systems. The mission's findings include determining that Mars has localized magnetic fields rather than a planet-wide field, weather and temperature mapping, and photographic evidence suggestive of recent water flow. Gullible true believers still think the so-called face on Mars is real but the Mars Orbital Camera proved it's a natural formation. Taxpayer money well spent.
Labels: JPL Open House 2005
Monday, May 16, 2005
Photos Of JPL Open House: Control Rooms And Factory Floors.
It's a crime to enter the control room of the Spaceflight Operations Facility of Jet Propulsion Laboratory without authorization. Fortunately for us it's not a crime to observe it and take photos. Check out the photos of the control room and other critical facilities at JPL taken during the open house on May 15, 2005.
Labels: JPL Open House 2005
A view from the hallway into the Spaceflight Operations Facility. Several employees were on duty during the open house but there was not much activity apparent. The wallscreen at the far end of the room showed the flight information for both Mars rovers.
Labels: JPL Open House 2005
A view from the balcony of JPL's Spaceflight Operations Facility. This is the room where JPL controls the spacecraft in flight. The facility can control 36 craft per year and is staffed 24/7. The facility is connected to the Deep Space Network which has large antenna in North America, Australia, and Europe. JPL takes the data from this array and is able to navigate spacecraft on their missions. The DSN is also able to characterize the surfaces of other planets to find landing spots and to detect what objects in space are made of through radiometrics. The dark wallscreen on the far right showed the flight information for the Deep Impact probe, which is on its way to rendezvous with a comet later this year. The screen third from the right showed flight information for all current missions.
Labels: JPL Open House 2005
View from the catwalk of the Spacecraft Fabrication Building at JPL. This is where the machinists build the parts that go into the spacecraft.
Labels: JPL Open House 2005
A JPL employee walks along a row of machinist's work stations in the Spacecraft Fabrication Building.
Labels: JPL Open House 2005
This is a typical machinist's work station in the Spacecraft Fabrication Buildling.
Labels: JPL Open House 2005
Second-floor view of the Spacecraft Assembly Room at JPL. The room is a very large clean room where spacecraft are prepared for their missions. The ceiling is about 3 to 4 stories high. The rectangles in the floor appeared to be vents. Unfortunately, JPL was not assembling any spacecraft during the open house so the room was empty. The size of the room was impressive enough by itself.
Labels: JPL Open House 2005
Another view of the of the Spacecraft Assembly Room. The "person" in the blue suit is a mannequin.
Labels: JPL Open House 2005
Sunday, May 15, 2005
Photos of JPL Open House: Mars Exploration Rovers
The author strikes a pose in front of a Mars panorama at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's open house on May 15, 2005. (Photo credit to Gerry Williams, http://filmist.com, friend and fellow member of the San Diego Mars Society.) The facility was open to the public over the weekend. The lab had displays of its rovers and past and proposed orbiters and landers. Most areas were open for viewing and JPL employees were on hand to answer questions and explain things. The open house is one of the coolest thing a space geek like myself can do. Over the next several days, this site will be publishing some of the photos I took on my visit. Today's photo subject: the Mars Exploration Rovers. Enjoy.
Labels: JPL Open House 2005
Mark Adler of JPL talks about the rover rolling next to him. Notice the rover's right-middle wheel climbing over a rock. The rover's wheels exert as much torque as a Hummer H5. Governor Schwarzenneger would be proud! The pictured rover was able to move at its maximum speed of 2 inches per second on the flat surface of the patio. On Mars, the rover is not always able to move at that speed due to the terrain. Movement on Mars often entails the rover moving one revolution of its wheels, stopping to take a navigation photograph, moving another revolution, and so on.
Labels: JPL Open House 2005
Close-up photograph of a full-size model Mars Exploration Rover on display at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's open house on May 15, 2005. The two rovers on Mars, Spirit and Opportunity, have been successful beyond all expectations outlasting their 3 month missions by a year and still operating. In the background another rover is seen moving around the patio.
Labels: JPL Open House 2005
One of the two full-size Mars Exploration Rovers in the Mars yard at Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The Mars yard is an enclosed room built to mimic the terrain on Mars. The yard is used by JPL to test procedures for helping Spirit and Opportunity navigate on Mars. The pictured rover appears to have just left a thick sandy area in the enclosure. JPL is searching for a way to instruct the rover Opportunity escape a sand trap on Mars. Do the tracks in the sand at the Mars yard signal a successful maneuver to come on Mars soon?
Labels: JPL Open House 2005
Close up of full-size Mars Exploration Rover on a slope in Mars yard at JPL open house on May 15, 2005.
Labels: JPL Open House 2005, Mars
A full-size Mars Exploration sits on a slope in JPL's Mars yard during open house on May 15, 2005.
Labels: JPL Open House 2005, Mars
Friday, May 13, 2005
The Space Captains Of Industry In The World Of Today
This is the most recent in a series of posts derived from the Space Access Conference 2005. More than a few rocket companies talked about their plans and activities at the conference. Here’s a sampling of the presentations given by companies who are working on getting into suborbital space now.
XCOR - Jeff Greason.
He said XCOR (click here for website) formed to get into orbit. They will not be satisfied with suborbital alone. Their development plan is to build pieces of what they need for their own vehicle design for the government. In this way their government contract helps to pay for the development of XCOR’s own vehicle.
Two of the markets they see for reusable suborbital launch vehicles are passengers and payloads. Regarding payloads they see microgravity experiments, astronomical instruments, and launching second stage expendable payloads from a space plane as payload markets.
They’ve done their own market projections, which are less expansive than the Futron study results but they see the suborbital market as sufficient to make a living.
Suborbital rockets is a regulated industry and will remain so but the regulatory risk is no longer in the top 3 of risks for the first time since 1999 when they formed their company.
With respect to capital investors they have some but none are “super-rich.” Their good recent financial news is they landed a government contract that will pay them 1 million per year up to 7 million per year if NASA exercises their option. The NASA contract is a fixed price contract. XCOR chose to avoid the classic aerospace pattern of cost-plus contracting. In Greason’s view cost-plus contacting results in “bright people spending a lot of time and creativity trying to figure out how to make things cost more.” A result of cost-plus contracting in his view is making a lot of money but not building anything.
The contract is to develop a composite fuel tank based on a patent they have filed but that has not yet issued. The material retains flexibility at cold temperatures and it could eliminate the micro-cracking that occurs in current fuel tanks that occurs when the plastics that must be used in the tanks freeze and become brittle.
XCOR’s EZ-Rocket will fly at the Mojave Air Show on September 21, 2005.
With respect to future flights they obtained a license last year. The license had 5 conditions on it that were not conducive to XCOR’s plans. Four have been renegotiated and one is in the process.
XCOR is also doing upper stage work with DARPA.
Rocketplane LLC - Chuck Lauer
The Rocketplane XP program (click here for website) is building a resusable suborbital rocket that takes off and lands like a plane. The design uses a modified Lear 25. One big story of Rocketplane LLC is how they got financed.
Lauer describes their financing as coming from “The O Prize.” This is his term for Oklahoma’s competition for a research and development investment tax credit which the state awarded to Rocketplane. The purpose of the tax credit was to attract a space R&D company to Oklahoma to bring back the jobs the state lost when the Clinton-Sherman Airbase was shut down by the federal government. The Clinton-Sherman Airbase is now the Oklahoma Space Port.
Rocketplane won the investment tax credit, valued at $18 million and turned around and sold it to a bank that actually had Oklahoma tax liability for $12.5 million.
Rocketplane has taken that $12.5 million and hired a staff of 25 people composed of “skunk works” people but mostly commercial jet people. They plan to hire 25 more.
The company’s main engineering office is at Will Rogers Airport in Oklahoma City but they are building their rocketplane at Guthrie Municipal Airport.
As for the rocketplane itself, it is based on a Lear 25 with modifications for rocket flight. It is intended to take 4 people from a runway to 330,000 feet and return to the same runway. Their operations goal is two flights per week. He wouldn’t say their estimated cost per flight. The plane would have a normal shirt-sleeve environment inside. The flight would involve flying as a jet to 23.000 feet where the rocket would ignite and carry the craft into suborbital space.
The craft will be entirely a fly by wire vehicle using LI batteries. The entire mission could be flown robotically but the normal mission will use human pilots. Lauer said they believe a tourist flight to suborbital space from Oklahoma will have a view of both coasts of the United States at the top of the flight.
Their test craft has undergone low speed wind tunnel tests so far but they are scheduled for supersonic runs at Marshall Space Flight Center.
Rocketplane LLC’s long-term goal is to have a family of spaceplanes. Their target markets are tourism, International Space Station cargo delivery, point to point travel, for instance 1 hour transoceanic flights delivering passengers or packages. Lauer pointed out that the package delivery market is $40 billion and some percentage of that market should be open to suborbital delivery.
A derivative product from their testing is a 6 passenger supersonic business jet.
They intend to fly in 2006 with a first paying customer in February of 2007. They have sufficient funding now to launch their prototype craft.
TGV Rockets - Pat Bahn
TGV Rockets (click here for website) is located in Oklahoma. TGV was founded to continue the DCX program. It opened in 2003 and now has 15 full-time engineers, which Bahr described as the reconstituted DCX program. Bahn said his key design criterion for his rocket is what he called “roadability.” The capability of putting the rocket on ground transportation. In their case, the back of an 18-wheel trailer.
The goals of their project are to create a vertical take off and vertical landing resusable suborbital vehicle. The design is intended to be simple and robust, modular and scalable. The goal is robust operations. Their objective is to send 1 metric ton to 100 kilometers at the lowest possible price. He described his business model as the 1-1-1 plan: 1 metric ton to 100 kilometers at $1 million.
Bahn was not forthcoming with some of the details of his operation. He wouldn’t say whether he had obtained a license from the FAA yet but he said he didn’t view it as a serious problem. Software is what he described as a serious problem in rocket design. He also said they have identified their prime contractors and put them under contract but he wouldn’t say who they are.
He also said his aim was to create an entirely new market, but he wouldn’t reveal what that market is. He did say he did not intend to get into space tourism. He described space tourism as a “hellacious business model” in which the day the first billionaire dies is the day the business dies and goes to lawsuit “hell.”
He did say that he is not just in the business of building a reusable suborbital rocket but he will be operating it as well. He said he believed there is more money in operations than in manufacturing. So their plan is to be a launch service and manufacturing company. The only details he gave for future market projections were multiple military applications, microsatellite launching, and commercial science work.
He said their earliest flight opportunity is 2008. He also claimed to have two paying customers.
Orbital Recovery - Dennis Wingo
Orbital Recovery (click here for website) has found a niche market and has gone to Europe to make it work. OR has developed a satellite tug that is launched on Ariane 5. The tug has the capability to fly to GEO, dock with an ailing satellite and move it. The disposal orbit is 280 miles past GEO. Once the tug is done with one mission it can decouple and move on to another job.
The tug’s mission starts with a launch by Ariane. From there the tug uses its electric propulsion (117 kilograms of xenon) to travel to GEO in 190 days. The tug uses solar energy, 6 panels on 2 wings, and LI batteries. Once at the satellite, the tug inserts a pole-like capture tool into the nozzle of the ailing satellite to dock.
Orbital Recover is in due diligence with 2 customers. Their target market is to do 3 replacements per year. The market for replacing satellites for the next 10 years is 200 replacements, which appears to leave a wide-open niche market for would-be competitors.
-tdr
XCOR - Jeff Greason.
He said XCOR (click here for website) formed to get into orbit. They will not be satisfied with suborbital alone. Their development plan is to build pieces of what they need for their own vehicle design for the government. In this way their government contract helps to pay for the development of XCOR’s own vehicle.
Two of the markets they see for reusable suborbital launch vehicles are passengers and payloads. Regarding payloads they see microgravity experiments, astronomical instruments, and launching second stage expendable payloads from a space plane as payload markets.
They’ve done their own market projections, which are less expansive than the Futron study results but they see the suborbital market as sufficient to make a living.
Suborbital rockets is a regulated industry and will remain so but the regulatory risk is no longer in the top 3 of risks for the first time since 1999 when they formed their company.
With respect to capital investors they have some but none are “super-rich.” Their good recent financial news is they landed a government contract that will pay them 1 million per year up to 7 million per year if NASA exercises their option. The NASA contract is a fixed price contract. XCOR chose to avoid the classic aerospace pattern of cost-plus contracting. In Greason’s view cost-plus contacting results in “bright people spending a lot of time and creativity trying to figure out how to make things cost more.” A result of cost-plus contracting in his view is making a lot of money but not building anything.
The contract is to develop a composite fuel tank based on a patent they have filed but that has not yet issued. The material retains flexibility at cold temperatures and it could eliminate the micro-cracking that occurs in current fuel tanks that occurs when the plastics that must be used in the tanks freeze and become brittle.
XCOR’s EZ-Rocket will fly at the Mojave Air Show on September 21, 2005.
With respect to future flights they obtained a license last year. The license had 5 conditions on it that were not conducive to XCOR’s plans. Four have been renegotiated and one is in the process.
XCOR is also doing upper stage work with DARPA.
Rocketplane LLC - Chuck Lauer
The Rocketplane XP program (click here for website) is building a resusable suborbital rocket that takes off and lands like a plane. The design uses a modified Lear 25. One big story of Rocketplane LLC is how they got financed.
Lauer describes their financing as coming from “The O Prize.” This is his term for Oklahoma’s competition for a research and development investment tax credit which the state awarded to Rocketplane. The purpose of the tax credit was to attract a space R&D company to Oklahoma to bring back the jobs the state lost when the Clinton-Sherman Airbase was shut down by the federal government. The Clinton-Sherman Airbase is now the Oklahoma Space Port.
Rocketplane won the investment tax credit, valued at $18 million and turned around and sold it to a bank that actually had Oklahoma tax liability for $12.5 million.
Rocketplane has taken that $12.5 million and hired a staff of 25 people composed of “skunk works” people but mostly commercial jet people. They plan to hire 25 more.
The company’s main engineering office is at Will Rogers Airport in Oklahoma City but they are building their rocketplane at Guthrie Municipal Airport.
As for the rocketplane itself, it is based on a Lear 25 with modifications for rocket flight. It is intended to take 4 people from a runway to 330,000 feet and return to the same runway. Their operations goal is two flights per week. He wouldn’t say their estimated cost per flight. The plane would have a normal shirt-sleeve environment inside. The flight would involve flying as a jet to 23.000 feet where the rocket would ignite and carry the craft into suborbital space.
The craft will be entirely a fly by wire vehicle using LI batteries. The entire mission could be flown robotically but the normal mission will use human pilots. Lauer said they believe a tourist flight to suborbital space from Oklahoma will have a view of both coasts of the United States at the top of the flight.
Their test craft has undergone low speed wind tunnel tests so far but they are scheduled for supersonic runs at Marshall Space Flight Center.
Rocketplane LLC’s long-term goal is to have a family of spaceplanes. Their target markets are tourism, International Space Station cargo delivery, point to point travel, for instance 1 hour transoceanic flights delivering passengers or packages. Lauer pointed out that the package delivery market is $40 billion and some percentage of that market should be open to suborbital delivery.
A derivative product from their testing is a 6 passenger supersonic business jet.
They intend to fly in 2006 with a first paying customer in February of 2007. They have sufficient funding now to launch their prototype craft.
TGV Rockets - Pat Bahn
TGV Rockets (click here for website) is located in Oklahoma. TGV was founded to continue the DCX program. It opened in 2003 and now has 15 full-time engineers, which Bahr described as the reconstituted DCX program. Bahn said his key design criterion for his rocket is what he called “roadability.” The capability of putting the rocket on ground transportation. In their case, the back of an 18-wheel trailer.
The goals of their project are to create a vertical take off and vertical landing resusable suborbital vehicle. The design is intended to be simple and robust, modular and scalable. The goal is robust operations. Their objective is to send 1 metric ton to 100 kilometers at the lowest possible price. He described his business model as the 1-1-1 plan: 1 metric ton to 100 kilometers at $1 million.
Bahn was not forthcoming with some of the details of his operation. He wouldn’t say whether he had obtained a license from the FAA yet but he said he didn’t view it as a serious problem. Software is what he described as a serious problem in rocket design. He also said they have identified their prime contractors and put them under contract but he wouldn’t say who they are.
He also said his aim was to create an entirely new market, but he wouldn’t reveal what that market is. He did say he did not intend to get into space tourism. He described space tourism as a “hellacious business model” in which the day the first billionaire dies is the day the business dies and goes to lawsuit “hell.”
He did say that he is not just in the business of building a reusable suborbital rocket but he will be operating it as well. He said he believed there is more money in operations than in manufacturing. So their plan is to be a launch service and manufacturing company. The only details he gave for future market projections were multiple military applications, microsatellite launching, and commercial science work.
He said their earliest flight opportunity is 2008. He also claimed to have two paying customers.
Orbital Recovery - Dennis Wingo
Orbital Recovery (click here for website) has found a niche market and has gone to Europe to make it work. OR has developed a satellite tug that is launched on Ariane 5. The tug has the capability to fly to GEO, dock with an ailing satellite and move it. The disposal orbit is 280 miles past GEO. Once the tug is done with one mission it can decouple and move on to another job.
The tug’s mission starts with a launch by Ariane. From there the tug uses its electric propulsion (117 kilograms of xenon) to travel to GEO in 190 days. The tug uses solar energy, 6 panels on 2 wings, and LI batteries. Once at the satellite, the tug inserts a pole-like capture tool into the nozzle of the ailing satellite to dock.
Orbital Recover is in due diligence with 2 customers. Their target market is to do 3 replacements per year. The market for replacing satellites for the next 10 years is 200 replacements, which appears to leave a wide-open niche market for would-be competitors.
-tdr
Labels: Space Access Society 2005, Space Captains Of Industry
Thursday, May 12, 2005
Saturn Awards Results
The Academy of Science Fiction Fantasy and Horror Films presented their awards for best films of 2004 last week. My two favorites won in their respective categories. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind won best science fiction and Shaun of the Dead won best horror. Hooray for our side! (Click here to see all the results.)
-tdr
-tdr
Labels: Science Fiction
Wednesday, May 11, 2005
Living In Interesting Times Under The Scrutiny Of Important People
"May you live in interesting times and come to the attention of important people."
-Supposed Chinese Curse
More than one speaker at the Space Access Conference 2005 cited the above quote to describe the current state of the alternative commercial space industry, alt-space, as it's called. Use of the phrase at the conference was more appropriate than people may realize since it might not be an old Chinese curse at all. Instead it could be a line, described as a both a blessing and a curse, from a 1950 science-fiction story called "U-Turn" by Duncan H. Munro aka Eric Frank Russell. (Click here to read that digression.)
So is it true? Does the phrase describe the times and, if so, is it a curse or a blessing? Like many things in life it's probably a little bit of both.
Interesting Times?
Nobody paying any attention to space could deny that these are interesting times. The year 2004 is looking to have been a watershed year for alt-space. President Bush announced his Vision for Space Exploration thing in January, and on the same day that Burt Rutan's crew broke the sound barrier while testing Space Ship One. A component of the Vision thing directs NASA to pursue commercial opportunities for service of the International Space Station and to perform its exploration mission. Later that year, the Aldridge Commission issued its report and also recommended NASA make commercialization of space one of its priorities. Rutan's crew was the first private venture to send a human into space, not just once but three times. And Richard Branson committed millions to develop his own private space fleet of tourist ships to take paying customers into suborbital space. Finally, back to the government again, the feds passed the Space Launch Amendments Act of 2004, which was drafted to support the development of a private suborbital space industry in the United States.
As the Space Access Conference showed, Rutan and Branson are not the only people working to get the rest of us into space and make a buck while doing it. Flying west to east across the United States there's XCOR in Mojave, which has just gotten a major contract with NASA and continues to piece together what they need to send a human into space. JP Aerospace, also in California, is working on a wild vision of getting to orbit using giant airships and continues to fly balloons to the edge of space for paying customers. Armadillo Aerospace in Texas is testing their home-built rockets. TGV Rockets in Oklahoma has 15 full-time engineers working on continuing the DCX program for their customers, of which they say they have two who have paid so far. In the same state Rocketplane LLC has taken the $12 million they got by selling a $18 million tax credit they won from the State of Oklahoma and is building a rocketplane based on a Lear Jet, which they say they will take off like a plane from a runway in 2006, blast into suborbit from flight, and then return to Earth landing like a plane on the same runway.
But interesting times is only the first clause of the quote.
Coming to the attention of important people?
In the context of the curse, important people surely must mean, "the government." As passage of the Space Launch Amendments Act of 2004 demonstrates, alt-space has come to the attention of the government in a big way. Indeed, the interesting times the alt-spacers are going through directly contributed to passage of the Act. Tim Hughes, majority counsel for the House Science Committee, said at the Space Access Conference that Space Ship One's safe and successful flights in 2004 helped to secure passage of the bill. Two important people who pushed the bill are Tom DeLay in the House and Harry Reid in the Senate.
The Act enjoyed bi-partisan support in Congress and passed by unanimous consent in the Senate and with more than a 2/3 majority in the House. Despite this overwhelming support the Act had to overcome a strong floor fight against it in House by those who objected to what they called the Act's "tombstone mentality."
What the tombstone mentality means is the Act specifically tells the FAA that they can't regulate design specifications of suborbital rockets for safety for at least 8 years unless sometime before then a serious safety problem has been demonstrated. In other words, the FAA has to keep their hands off design for now unless somebody dies.
Right now, the FAA is working on producing regulations for the Act. The FAA's role will be as a one-stop shop for licensing commercial launches and providing experimental permits. The FAA is supposed to protect the uninvolved public as much as possible without requiring specific designs for safety. The theory there is that the government shouldn't specify what is not known is required for safety. As for crew, the Act simply requires that crew be informed of the risks before participating.
To further help this infant industry grow, the term "suborbital vehicle" was defined as broadly as possible to sweep as many efforts as possible within the Act. This was done to benefit the industry because ventures that fall under the Act can go through a streamlined one-stop shop process at the FAA to get a launch license for commercial flights and an experimental permit for testing. The term "crew" was also broadly defined to include ground personnel to sweep as many people as possible out of the uninvolved public category, which requires greater safety protection, and into the informed risk category, which requires less.
If last year is any indication, coming to the attention of important people has been a blessing for the alt-space industry rather than a curse. The federal government is formally committed under the President's Vision thing to including commercial space opportunities for its exploration mission. The industry got Congress's attention and there were enough important people supporting the it to ensure passage of a law specifically designed to help the industry grow. The FAA, tasked by Congress to regulate the industry, has allies of the industry in its ranks and is writing the regulations to fulfill Congress's mandate to support the industry.
There are important people in Congress, however, who will be watching how the industry performs under the new regulations. The loose regime enacted by Congress was helped immensely by the successes of 2004. Despite those successes a strong minority in Congress wanted to have stricter safety regulations in place now. The threat that looms over the industry is what will happen 8 years from now when the FAA gets its first opportunity to tighten the regulatory vice, or even sooner if tombstones start popping up with the epitaph, "killed by a rocket falling out of the sky."
To give itself room to grow into a mature industry, the alt-spacers must recognize that today's society may be a heck of a lot less forgiving of accidents than early 20th Century America was of the barnstormers who started the airplane industry at great risk to themselves. Important people with the power to kill this industry will be watching what happens. Interesting times indeed.
-tdr
-Supposed Chinese Curse
More than one speaker at the Space Access Conference 2005 cited the above quote to describe the current state of the alternative commercial space industry, alt-space, as it's called. Use of the phrase at the conference was more appropriate than people may realize since it might not be an old Chinese curse at all. Instead it could be a line, described as a both a blessing and a curse, from a 1950 science-fiction story called "U-Turn" by Duncan H. Munro aka Eric Frank Russell. (Click here to read that digression.)
So is it true? Does the phrase describe the times and, if so, is it a curse or a blessing? Like many things in life it's probably a little bit of both.
Interesting Times?
Nobody paying any attention to space could deny that these are interesting times. The year 2004 is looking to have been a watershed year for alt-space. President Bush announced his Vision for Space Exploration thing in January, and on the same day that Burt Rutan's crew broke the sound barrier while testing Space Ship One. A component of the Vision thing directs NASA to pursue commercial opportunities for service of the International Space Station and to perform its exploration mission. Later that year, the Aldridge Commission issued its report and also recommended NASA make commercialization of space one of its priorities. Rutan's crew was the first private venture to send a human into space, not just once but three times. And Richard Branson committed millions to develop his own private space fleet of tourist ships to take paying customers into suborbital space. Finally, back to the government again, the feds passed the Space Launch Amendments Act of 2004, which was drafted to support the development of a private suborbital space industry in the United States.
As the Space Access Conference showed, Rutan and Branson are not the only people working to get the rest of us into space and make a buck while doing it. Flying west to east across the United States there's XCOR in Mojave, which has just gotten a major contract with NASA and continues to piece together what they need to send a human into space. JP Aerospace, also in California, is working on a wild vision of getting to orbit using giant airships and continues to fly balloons to the edge of space for paying customers. Armadillo Aerospace in Texas is testing their home-built rockets. TGV Rockets in Oklahoma has 15 full-time engineers working on continuing the DCX program for their customers, of which they say they have two who have paid so far. In the same state Rocketplane LLC has taken the $12 million they got by selling a $18 million tax credit they won from the State of Oklahoma and is building a rocketplane based on a Lear Jet, which they say they will take off like a plane from a runway in 2006, blast into suborbit from flight, and then return to Earth landing like a plane on the same runway.
But interesting times is only the first clause of the quote.
Coming to the attention of important people?
In the context of the curse, important people surely must mean, "the government." As passage of the Space Launch Amendments Act of 2004 demonstrates, alt-space has come to the attention of the government in a big way. Indeed, the interesting times the alt-spacers are going through directly contributed to passage of the Act. Tim Hughes, majority counsel for the House Science Committee, said at the Space Access Conference that Space Ship One's safe and successful flights in 2004 helped to secure passage of the bill. Two important people who pushed the bill are Tom DeLay in the House and Harry Reid in the Senate.
The Act enjoyed bi-partisan support in Congress and passed by unanimous consent in the Senate and with more than a 2/3 majority in the House. Despite this overwhelming support the Act had to overcome a strong floor fight against it in House by those who objected to what they called the Act's "tombstone mentality."
What the tombstone mentality means is the Act specifically tells the FAA that they can't regulate design specifications of suborbital rockets for safety for at least 8 years unless sometime before then a serious safety problem has been demonstrated. In other words, the FAA has to keep their hands off design for now unless somebody dies.
Right now, the FAA is working on producing regulations for the Act. The FAA's role will be as a one-stop shop for licensing commercial launches and providing experimental permits. The FAA is supposed to protect the uninvolved public as much as possible without requiring specific designs for safety. The theory there is that the government shouldn't specify what is not known is required for safety. As for crew, the Act simply requires that crew be informed of the risks before participating.
To further help this infant industry grow, the term "suborbital vehicle" was defined as broadly as possible to sweep as many efforts as possible within the Act. This was done to benefit the industry because ventures that fall under the Act can go through a streamlined one-stop shop process at the FAA to get a launch license for commercial flights and an experimental permit for testing. The term "crew" was also broadly defined to include ground personnel to sweep as many people as possible out of the uninvolved public category, which requires greater safety protection, and into the informed risk category, which requires less.
If last year is any indication, coming to the attention of important people has been a blessing for the alt-space industry rather than a curse. The federal government is formally committed under the President's Vision thing to including commercial space opportunities for its exploration mission. The industry got Congress's attention and there were enough important people supporting the it to ensure passage of a law specifically designed to help the industry grow. The FAA, tasked by Congress to regulate the industry, has allies of the industry in its ranks and is writing the regulations to fulfill Congress's mandate to support the industry.
There are important people in Congress, however, who will be watching how the industry performs under the new regulations. The loose regime enacted by Congress was helped immensely by the successes of 2004. Despite those successes a strong minority in Congress wanted to have stricter safety regulations in place now. The threat that looms over the industry is what will happen 8 years from now when the FAA gets its first opportunity to tighten the regulatory vice, or even sooner if tombstones start popping up with the epitaph, "killed by a rocket falling out of the sky."
To give itself room to grow into a mature industry, the alt-spacers must recognize that today's society may be a heck of a lot less forgiving of accidents than early 20th Century America was of the barnstormers who started the airplane industry at great risk to themselves. Important people with the power to kill this industry will be watching what happens. Interesting times indeed.
-tdr
Labels: Space Access Society 2005, Space Captains Of Industry
Tuesday, May 03, 2005
Space Access Society Conference 2005 Photos
George Nield, of the FAA/AST, speaks to the Space Access Society Conference 2005 in Phoenix about the new suborbital spaceflight regulations being developed by the administration. The new regulations are being designed to promote the development of a commercial suborbital industry in the United States while at the same time protecting members of the uninvolved public from harm. The regs will do this by making the FAA a one-stop shop for launch licenses and experimental permits, by setting up a regime of informed-risk waivers for crew and passengers, and by not prescribing specifications for safety in design. Design specs will not be prescribed on the theory that the FAA should not try to regulate what it's not yet certain will work.
Labels: Space Access Society 2005
Monday, May 02, 2005
(L-R) Drs. Sam Dinkin, David Livingston, and John Jurist, present their controversial paper on the economics of orbital space launches to the Space Access Society Conference 2005 in Phoenix. Their peer-reviewed paper concluded that an orbital space industry will likely have to evolve from a suborbital industry over time. They cited the difficulty in the current economy of bringing orbital launch costs down below the $1,000 per pound goal for an affordable launch industry since range fees and insurance costs alone amount to a minimum $1,000 per pound premium. Read more about their presentation below in the April 30, 2005, post entitled "Reality-Check Day at Space Access Conference: April 29 Notes."
Labels: Space Access Society 2005
(L-R) Venture capitalists Tom Olson, Steve Fleming, and Joe Pistritto speak to the Space Access Sociey Conference 2005 in Phoenix. The three speakers agreed that the three most important things about a startup to a venture capitalist are: management, management, management. The management traits they look at are the experience the team has together, their personal integrity, and their expertise. The financial plan and technology, although important, are secondary. The most self-defeating thing a team can do when approaching venture capitalists is to "trash talk" their competition. The result is the entire industry gets a bad reputation.
Labels: Space Access Society 2005
Tim Hughes, Majority Counsel for the House Science Committee, explains the Space Launch Amendments Act of 2004 to the Space Access Conference 2005 in Phoenix. The Act is milestone legislation that lays the legal groundwork to assist American space entrepreneurs in developing a suborbital commercial space industry in the United States. The FAA is currently developing regulations to implement the Act.
Labels: Space Access Society 2005
Steve Harrington of Flometrics demonstrates his company's pistonless pump for rockets at the Space Access Society Conference 2005 in Phoenix. The pump is lightweight and simple and is designed to replace the turbopump which is standard in rockets today. The pump used water for this demonstration and tequila rocket fuel, in the form of margarita mix, later that evening. Learn more about the pump at http://www.rocketfuelpump.com
Labels: Space Access Society 2005
